10/11/2005Briefly Speaking: Market Moves, by Victor Niederhoffer
The market during the last 10 months has gone from a daily close below 1200 to a daily close above 1200 on six separate occasions. It is hard to test whether this is random or not.
Of the 220 European stock market indexes listed on my screen, all are up. Of the 85 North American and South American markets on my screen, all except Jamaica and the U.S. are up. Of the 85 Asian markets, 75 of 85 are up, the only ones down being China and Taiwan and Malaysia. There is some double-counting here because many indexes are for the same country. Ten of the 20 U.S. markets are up.
The market has gone down open to close six days in a row, and is now below the open for the seventh day.
It is common to think that high oil prices are associated with low stock prices. However, the move up to $70 oil was in conjunction with a S&P well above 1200 and the recent move to five-month lows in oil circa $60 is in conjunction with the current S&P low. More microscopic testing confirms the relation.
Thomson projects third-quarter earnings comparisons for the S&P to be up 15%. The yearly estimated earnings, according to a Zacks survey based on eight estimates is $73.50 a share for 2005 and $78.40 for year-end 2006, based on diluted EPS from continuing operations.
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