Bear Markets Gone Forever? Yea, sure, right...........

Indian Country MATH

Here is some basic math that should be easy for everyone across Indian Country, even Elizabeth Warren to understand.

Last week, Congress passed a 2-year “continuing resolution, or C.R.,”  to keep the Government funded through the 2018 elections. While “fiscal conservatism” was just placed on the sacrificial alter to satisfy the “Re-election” Gods,” the bigger issue is the impact to the economy and, ultimately, the financial markets.

The passage of the $400 billion C.R. has an impact that few people understand. When a C.R. is passed it keeps Government spending at the same previous baseline PLUS an 8% increase. The recent C.R. just added $200 billion per year to that baseline. This means over the next decade, the C.R. will add $2 Trillion in spending to the Federal budget. Then add to that any other spending approved such as the proposed $200 billion for an infrastructure spending bill, money for DACA/Immigration reform, or a whole host of other social welfare programs that will require additional funding.

But that is only half the problem. The recent passage of tax reform will trim roughly $2 Trillion from revenues over the next decade as well.

This is easy math.

Cut $2 trillion in revenue, add $2 trillion in spending, and you create a $4 trillion dollar gap in the budget. Of course, that is $4 Trillion in addition to the current run rate in spending which continues the current acceleration of the “debt problem.”

Montana's Media Slime Surfacing......... Billings Gazette

Guest Opinion by Sheriff David Clarke: In Response To The Gazette’s Editorial On My Upcoming Speech

As a conservative first, who happens to be black, I’m used to fierce debate with the left because I don’t fit in their political box. However, a recent editorial in Billings Gazette on my upcoming speech to the Yellowstone County GOP is not simply a criticism of my politics, it’s a direct personal attack against me and illustrates a greater hypocrisy.

This political hit-piece is typical of the liberal media’s hateful campaign against anyone that doesn’t pass their progressive litmus test. You can tell that these editors read the Democratic talking points. As an African-American conservative, I hear these same talking points everywhere I go.

The nameless, faceless cabal at the Gazette didn’t take aim at the merits of my political positions. Instead, they resorted to personalized attacks through name-calling, cherry picking incidents, misrepresenting facts, and even threatening me.

And since these journalists failed to properly research, they may not know just how seriously we take threatening the use of a gun against law enforcement. The war on cops has been fueled by left-leaning editorial boards and has inspired their followers to assault and kill police in attacks in Dallas, Baton Rouge, and New York City.

It’s clear that either the editorial board has a political agenda or they simply don’t know what they’re talking about. After all, they don’t even understand the legal definition of deadly force. Hypothetically, if a member of the editorial board kills me for simply punching one of them – absent from great bodily harm likely to cause death – it wouldn’t justify their use of deadly force against me. The unlawful use of a firearm to settle disputes is actually one of the main reasons for violence in urban areas and the leading cause of death for black males under the age of 25 – another fact regarding crime that this editorial board clearly doesn’t understand.

But one of the reasons this board doesn’t understand urban crime and especially black conservatives is probably because they suppress black conservative opinions. The reason I embrace self-defense emanates from my slave ancestors’ belief in the right to defend themselves against mob attacks and lynching. My ancestors couldn’t own guns; they had to use their fists.

In part because of my ancestors’ struggle as slaves, I take incidents of crime and justice seriously. The editorial board falsely insinuated that I enabled an inmate’s death. I ran a jail of 1,000 inmates with a staff of over 300. Whenever I was informed of an inmate’s death, I ordered an investigation and referred the findings to the District Attorney. In this case, I called in an outside agency for impartiality. If someone violated policies on handling inmates, they were held accountable.

This hit-piece – full of ad hominem attacks – illustrates the paper’s glaring hypocrisy.

When Democrats have used risqué language, the Billings Gazette was silent. I doubt that the paper ever called out former President Barack Obama when he encouraged rally attendees to prepare for a political fight by saying “if they pull a knife, we pull a gun.”

Similarly, the Gazette was silent on Obama for causing the death of Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry in a botched and politicized gun running mission to Mexico. The editors didn’t even bat an eye when Obama caused the death of Ambassador Stevens and other Americans when they were attacked by terrorists in Benghazi because Obama failed to act. Obama participated in cover-up scandals.

In their diatribe, the Gazette called me a thug. That’s an interesting term for a virtue signaling editorial board to use against an educated African-American and former Sheriff. When someone on the right uses that term in reference to black criminals, the left claims it’s a racist term. The media has done that to President Trump when he rightfully calls out the violent gang MS-13.

The Gazette enjoys First Amendment protection, but doesn’t believe in the freedom of assembly for the Yellowstone County GOP. Otherwise, the editors wouldn’t bully and harass the Yellowstone County GOP in hopes that they will rescind my invitation.

But the real reasons for this politically motivated editorial are worthy of a legitimate discussion.

The editorial board at the Billings Gazette is not outraged that the Yellowstone County GOP invited a conservative to speak, but rather a black conservative. The left hates conservatives but they abhor black conservatives like me because we can effectively neutralize their false racism smears against conservatives. It’s hard for leftists to swallow the debate when they’re up against a black conservative. According to them, I am supposed to embrace liberal dogma and condemn Republicans as racists. They see me not as an individual and freethinker, but an oddity whose opinions must be silenced.

The left-leaning media continually virtue signal about diversity – except when it comes to black conservatives. I challenge the editorial board to tell us about their diversity efforts and tell me how many people of color sit on their board. From the looks of it, they could use a lesson in diversity themselves. Maybe they should address how many people of color exist in the Montana Democrat Party, or how many Democratic people of color hold state office.

Note to the Billings Gazette editorial board: Take the hood off – I know who you are.

Nonetheless, I look forward to my visit to the Treasure State as a guest of the Yellowstone County GOP. I have been to Montana. Its people have been gracious and accommodating.

If the Billings Gazette has an ounce of courage, they will allow me the unedited space to respond to their smears by running this response. If they want to actually debate my policy positions instead of pushing their agenda about identity politics, I’m ready for that fight too. Please don’t shoot me when I win the debate. It wouldn’t be the first time, that as a black man, I had to prove my worth to liberals.

Sheriff (ret.) David Clarke is the president of DAC Enterprises, LLC.

American Airlines CitiBank Card

I never in my life thought I could encounter a customer service department worse than COMCAST.

At last, I have encountered one.

Citibank Credit Card folks that work with American Airlines.

Absolute stunning example of customer NO-SERVICE!!! 

Anyone else find the Garden of Treason?

Best advice to any WF client

THINGS of VALUE

Things of value are:

• Knowing how to find or create a source of fresh water.
• Knowing how to defend oneself and family.
• Knowing how to build and sustain a fire.
• Knowing how to build a shelter and set up defenses.
• Having a trade skill.
• Know how to snare or trap.
• Being able to practice field medicine.
• Knowing what medicines are good. 
• Knowing how to hunt.
• Knowing how to make squirrel taste good.

If you possess any of these, you have value. If you don't, you're better off as fertilizer for the fields. 

It won't matter if you have one million Bitcoin if you serve no purpose to anyone because you probably fail at making grilled cheese in your mom's basement.

Sick NFL logic

Let me get this straight. NFL players are taking a knee to protest a "racist" President Trump who wants border security to prevent another illegal alien from murdering another NFL player.

GMAFB!

Dean Parisian endorsed goose hunting gear...................

Deano’s waterfowl gear( warmer weather honker hunting)

Basic camo jacket
Wife beater Tee base layer
Ratty old Carhartt pants (brown)
Well worn casual loafers (black)
Stormy Kromer (any color green or brown)

They die no matter what he wears............

FACTS. Stock Market facts................

This post is not meant to solicit new clients. My firm is closed to new clients. It is meant to make you think about your retirement and your financial health. I hope it helps.

You don't need analysts in a bull market and you don't want them in a bear market. It is time to revisit some common sense for all of you in the fly-over states who will have brokers calling with the sell-this, buy-that meme as their commission runs dry up in this bear market.

Having been through a fair amount of volatility in my trading career I can only say for certain there is some massive spikes of volatility ahead. I started in this business on April 1, 1982, what a joke eh? 

There is going to be alot of pain with your money. It is coming just as sure as the lies and campaign promises of Republicans and Democrats.

Let me share some advice in a speech that I gave long ago and not too long ago. It never seems to go out of style. 

I was born in 1953. That year the price of a 1st class postage stamp was 3 cents. Maybe I am old-fashioned, maybe I have been around too long, maybe I‘ve made too much money sitting in stocks over many years. You see, I’m one of those guys what believes stocks solve long-term problems. You should too. If you are like many investors maybe you turned off TV and stopped watching financial news as the market corrected back in 2000, 2001 and 2002 from the excesses of the 1990’s. I know the drivel on CNBC from the buy-this, sell-that crowd drowns out basic, common sense. To me, and probably to you, the hallmarks of a successful retirement are dignity and independence, the ability to go hunting where and when you want and the ability to meet the basic needs of life that continue to only go one way in price. Up.

Today, the average American male lives to be 77, the average female lives to 81. I know the key to financial independence, perhaps over decades of retirement is an income you can’t outlive, an income that is rising even as your cost of living continues to go up. 

Personally, I think the biggest financial risk to all of us besides losing one’s money, is outliving it, which means owning the stock market is more critical today than ever before. Remember the cost of living has tripled over the last 30 years, yet few triple their income in retirement? Risk is the extinction of purchasing power. Safety is increasing your purchasing power. Last week I paid 49 cents for a postage stamp. I will bet my Lowa boots the price of stamps is only going one way. Care to guess which way the price of stamps will go?

The stock market is simply a facility for the exchange of shares. Just like the markets for fur, guns, traps or fish it is driven by supply and demand. My friends on the NYSE floor understand fear and greed better than most but they can’t tell the difference between preferred stock and livestock, they only care about payouts on commissions generated with your money, not theirs. When I last checked fear and greed hadn’t changed for around 10,000 years. Today, capitalism is the organizing principle for most of the human activity on the globe, for no one can stop capitalism. Here are 10 reasons why the United States stock market is going to continue up much like it has during your entire lifetime, (1) the U.S. has the greatest number of entrepreneurial managed companies in the world, bar none. (2) we have the leading military in the world (3) we have the leading high technology in the world in both hardware and software (4) we have the leading medical technology in the world (5)we have the leading political system in the world (6) we have 25 times more Nobel prize winners that any other country in the world (7) we create more jobs than Japan and Europe combined (8) we have 11,000 companies that trade publicly under some of the better accounting rules anywhere (9) you as an American have the freedom to accumulate wealth and extract out of life what it is you want and (10) the stock market doesn’t care who you are, what color you are, where you went to school, and, (because I grew up in the poorest county in America on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation), it doesn’t care where you came from.

Things are great and they are going to get better. I feel the 21st Century started in 1989 when the Berlin Wall came down. Change is certain. I am one of those guys that believe you set your goals in life ahead of time. Mine includes being a free person; freedom is what this country is all about. The opportunities for success are greater now than ever before. For the first time in the history of the world all the people who are poor know they are poor. Success has nothing to do with money and everything to do with how you feel about yourself. Your net worth is your ability to function. When I was a cadet at the United States Military Academy at West Point postage stamps cost 8 cents and the Dow crossed 1,000 for the first time. That same year the microprocessor was invented. Today, 85% of the scientists who have ever lived are still working! When I took my degree in Economics the price of a stamp was 13 cents. Still think you don’t need exposure to the stock market?

The market is a funny place. It is the only business in the world when things are on sale, people don’t want to buy. The greatest enemy of long term investment success is not ignorance, it is fear. You see, fear leads to panic and panic breeds the inability to distinguish between temporary declines and permanent losses. When people panic they don’t discriminate. Since all market declines have been temporary and all advances permanent, we know the key to investment success is not found in intellectual babble like beta’s, standard deviations or chaos theory. It’s time in the market. Put time on your side. The single greatest thing you have going for you is time because no one can successfully forecast interest rates over the long term and no one can forecast short to intermediate term stock market moves. Long term the market always goes up, that is inevitable. But, why do investors lose in the market and why has the average mutual fund investor only averaged a small return in his mutual fund holdings?

I don’t mean to be critical, but most people invest through the rear-view mirror. They buy mutual funds after they have gone up substantially. They have bought into what I call the Sesame Street School of investing. They buy into the hottest fund, in the hottest sector, in the hottest country, from the hottest brokerage firm and the one that has the most “stars” next to it in Money magazine. Then what happens? You know the drill. They turn cold. In fairly short order, a perfectly normal market correction comes along. The cycle comes to an end. Investing like that is like enlisting in the Taliban on September 12th, 2001. Yes, you are joining the proudest fighting force in the world that day. Yes, your outfit just pulled off one of the greatest disasters of all time. But you know what? You are toast. Your obituary is written. It is all downhill. I have no wish to drive this message into the ground like a ICBM but I want to make one point very clear. Pay attention. At the end of an investor’s life, less than 5% of his total lifetime return will from what his investments did versus other investments. The other 95% will come from how the investor behaved.

You see, I have a firm belief that there is absolutely no relationship between investment performance and investor performance. Stock market success is a function of two things. One, recognition that the markets will go down and sometimes go down a lot, and two, prepare to regard those declines as either non-events or buying opportunities and never as an occasion to sell. With all certainty, I know that the most boring and mediocre stock fund in your portfolio, the one you hold onto during a vicious bear market is infinitely better than the world-class stock fund that you sell out of at the bottom of a temporary decline. The secret to making big money in stocks is to not get scared out of them. Americans, God bless them, are totally unable to distinguish between fluctuation and loss. The bottom line is this, and if you don’t believe me you have the right to be wrong, but don’t forget it, the higher your exposure to stocks as a percentage of your assets the better your overall return, over the long term. In the long run, no one controls our investment fate. We control it. Bailing out of markets is like quitting a marathon because you get tired.

Can you decipher buyers from sellers?

This ladies and gentlemen is the NYSE at work. 

The MAGA SOTU Reality

In his triumphalist SOTU, the Donald didn't utter so much as a single syllable about the Federal Reserve, the budget, entitlements, the $1 trillion per year deficits looming ahead or the nation's soaring public debt. 

After omitting virtually everything which counts, he went on to crow about how he is making America Great Again (MAGA) by making better trade deals and borrowing untold sums from future generations.

That is to say, when he did veer into fiscal territory it was to demand repeal of the sequester caps, which are the one thing that has slightly braked runaway spending, and to boast about his own favorite deficit financed twins: The $1.5 trillion tax cut already passed and the additional $1.5 trillion infrastructure boondoggle he proposed to lob on top.

Oh, and there was also his $33 billion Mexican Wall, 5,000 new border patrol agents (in  addition to 20,000 already) and Federalization of two purported crises---the opioid epidemic and gangs like MS-13----which should be a matter for local government, if the latter have any purpose at all.

Like I have said all along, the MATH of this madness will put a halt to alot of dreams.

RELEASE THE MEMO

Let me see if I have this straight.  A former First Lady and Secretary of State mishandles CLASSIFIED information, deletes thousands and thousands of documents that were subpoenaed, lies about the Rose Law firm billing records, lies about her cattle trading history and doesn't know what a "C" means on internal State Department documents but thinks that a MEMO will threaten the National Security of our country?

 

Millennial True or False?

Millennials get a lot of shit but the baby boomers are addicted to pain pills and Generation Z is eating tide pods for LIKES on Instagram so I think we are doing pretty good........